Posted by The Rugby World Cup warm-up games have followed a perfect soap opera storyline for Wales; a previous favourite character returns, things go well to start, then suddenly a train ploughs into a pub and you’re left wondering if everyone is dead or if they will remarkably survive and all declare their undying love for each other.
Just in case you’re not following the metaphor; the favourite character is Wales, things go well against England, then the Springboks plough into the Principality Stadium and the Rugby World Cup campaign is set to be either a disaster or everything will come together for an unlikely run to the semi-finals.
Saturday afternoon was a puzzling one. South Africa were incredibly dominant, Wales were third best in a two-team contest, but in the end it’s unclear if anyone learned anything of note. The Springboks never had to get out of second gear, the Welsh weren’t given a chance with a much changed team going up against a side that will challenge for the William Webb Ellis Trophy again.
To rule players out of Warren Gatland’s final 33-man squad set to be named on Monday on the back of the defeat at the Principality Stadium would be incredibly short sighted. How on earth are players expected to put their hands up for selection as part of a much-changed side going up against a close to full-strength world champions?
Wales were dominated up front, lost the scrum battle, struggled to break down the Springbok defence, and even though the aerial battle was won overall, could not maintain any territory. The lineout completion percentage was improved, but the overly safe throwing to the front meant the quality of ball for first phase strike plays was poor.
Ultimately the pressure that created, with South Africa going through lengthy attacking sets in the Welsh half, created try scoring opportunities and forced players from the home side into uncharacteristic errors. By half-time the encounter was over, the second half was borderline sadistic. To their credit the Welshmen never gave up, but it was an up-mountain battle.
So what are Wales left with at the end of the warm-ups? There are some players who have played their way into the final 33, some who are definitely out, but an awful lot of spots which nobody has truly claimed. The selection headaches too often come down to which player do you take a gamble on, either due to form or injury, rather than a tough choice between two fit and firing players.
Beyond that there is concern about the XV that will take the field against Fiji in Bordeaux on 10th September will have had very little game time as individuals and combinations. It’s not beyond the realms of responsibility that none of the front row, second row, back row, half-backs, centres and back three will have started together in their respective lines during the warm-ups, while many will have had less than 65 minutes of game time.
Gatland is playing a very risky game. He has chosen not to reveal his hand ahead of the tournament, but with the need to hit the ground running in that first game it could blow up in his face with disastrous consequences. Even if he chooses a younger and less experienced focus for the squad, the aim still has to be the make it out of the pool.
The comparisons to 2011 will be hard to ignore, and we all know the outcome of that, but this feels like an even greater gamble in terms of the totally new feel to the squad. The New Zealander rarely appears anything other than confident in himself and the plan he’s put in place, but the chat from outside the bubble will be loud as the tournament approaches.
Cardiff Rugby Life 