Wales needs to decide: Twist or stick?

Perhaps one of the biggest takeaways from the 2023 Rugby World Cup will be the performances of, and the potential within, some of tier two nations in the pool stage and beyond.

Fiji were the standouts on their run to the quarter-finals, while Chile, Portugal, Uruguay and Georgia caught the eye either through their results or their style of rugby, and Samoa came close to an historic win over England.

It created an outpouring of support for these smaller or emerging nations, especially when the new Rugby Nations Championship was announced as getting underway without the possibility of promotion and relegation to or from the top tier inside the first five years. A classic stitch up by the blazers of tier one nations preserving their access to the big television money at the expense of the growth of the sport.

That reflected a thought I’d had during the World Cup around whether it was actually possible for a side outside of the larger tier one nations to lift the Webb Ellis Cup?

You’ve got the back-to-back champions of South Africa with their 60 million population and the phenomenon of Craven Week with the quality of youth rugby that creates, France with it’s 68 million population and the huge amount of money around the rugby heartland in the south, and England with 56 million people and it’s network of public schools where rugby is the primary sport.

Even Ireland with it’s 7 million population and New Zealand with it’s 5 million population have the advantages of Leinster’s public school system for the former, and the ability to tap into the talent of Pacific Island nations for the latter.

The relevance of all that is it provides context to what the next four years looks like for Welsh Rugby, particularly at national team level, and whether Warren Gatland is the right man to lead us into Australia 2027.

When Gatland returned ahead of the last Six Nations it was on a contract until the end of the Rugby World Cup with options around continuing as Head Coach, moving into some sort of Director of Rugby role at the Welsh Rugby Union or shaking hands and bidding him farewell for a second time. With Nigel Walker set to become Executive Director of Rugby it seems the second option is now off the table.

So does the WRU continue with the New Zealander in charge, or does it head off in a new direction? It’s with that question in mind that I think it’s pertinent to consider if Wales can ever win the World Cup, especially in the state that rugby in the country is currently in.

Welsh Rugby is essentially going through a reset; the development pathway is being overhauled as the Dewar Shield moves to an U16 competition, with an Emerging Player Programme installed at U15 level to enhance player development for a larger number of youngsters in the country, while at senior level the budget cuts and youthfulness of the four professional squads have been widely covered.

The golden era of Wales players that came through when spending was high on pro squads and overseas internationals aided player development is long gone, now it’s about growing a new player pool from within, constantly fighting against a lack of resources and dealing with players going to particularly England, but also France, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

In his first spell in charge, when things were going well in terms of creating top quality players for the national team, Gatland’s success was questionable. Some would point to the Six Nations triumphs and runs to the World Cup semi-finals as him being hugely successful, however his record against the Southern Hemisphere big three was poor and the chance of converting those semi-final appearances into Cup triumphs was minimal.

Essentially, from where I’m sat, the style of play that Gatland favours would seem at odds with Wales ever becoming world champions. The levels of fitness and physicality it demands is too difficult to maintain for a nation of people that aren’t naturally the biggest and do not have the deepest player pool. Injuries crippled the 2015 and 2019 campaigns, while there was a noticeable casualty list by the time we were knocked out by Argentina, even if expectations were lower this time round.

So with a new era of player to welcome into professional rugby in Wales, and a long-term rebuild needed at all levels of the game, alongside of an overhaul of WRU management itself, is now the time to be brave and go in a new direction with the national team head coach?

We could settle with Warren Gatland and be happy with competing at Six Nations time, claiming the odd scalp of a big southern hemisphere side and making brave pushes for World Cup semi-finals, or we can say that it’s time to be confident and back ourselves, introduce a national team head coach that relies on a higher level of skill and adopt that as our Welsh style of play.

Jamie Joseph, Michael Cheika or Kieran Crowley have international coaching experience, Mike Catt or Leon MacDonald may wish to step up from assistant coach roles, or a Clayton McMillan, Stephen Larkham or Tabai Matson could join from the club game. There are plenty of exciting options that the WRU could consider, and we know that the salary offering will not be a hindrance.

It’s fair that many will have had their confidence shaken by the appointment of Wayne Pivac and the disaster that followed, and that this will be a major call for the incoming WRU CEO as well as the newly installed Chairman.

However, I firmly believe that if Welsh Rugby wants to make a long-term success of this current reset period and be seen as an ambitious and forward-thinking entity then a change has to come. Settling for the status quo does nothing other than continually fester a “that’ll do” attitude.

If that’s where people are happy for Wales to be then fine, but I think we can be so much more.