You almost couldn’t write it…

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My other half is a fan of the American medical drama series Grey’s Anatomy. It’s a show that has been on for 21 seasons spanning 20 years now, and regularly leaves me asking the question “…and all of this happens at one hospital in Seattle?”.

There’s been plane crashes, bombs, train crashes, building collapses and a devastating fire, all of which has resulted in pretty much every doctor who has ever taken a job there ending up dead, seriously injured or emotionally traumatised, and yet they keep going back for more.

If you switch Grey’s Anatomy with Welsh Rugby, and switch that list of disasters with the civil war between the WRU and pro clubs, Project Reset, and the new PRA, as well as the sacking of Head Coaches and Directors of Rugby, hiring of replacements because they are familiar faces and general sexism and bullying, it suddenly seems more realistic.

But who are the schmucks that are taking the role of the doctors that keep signing up to work at Grey-Sloan Memorial Hospital, I hear you ask? Well I’ve got bad news for you, it’s us supporters who keep coming back for more season after season.

This season’s main catastrophe has been slowly teased over recent weeks, with stories of PRA deadlines and rumours of the re-emergence of mergers, before finally the major plot was unveiled on Saturday night by Steff Thomas of WalesOnline.

Clarified by the Welsh Rugby Union on Sunday morning, the state of play in its simplest form is that Cardiff and Dragons have signed up to the new PRA, Ospreys and Scarlets haven’t, and as such have been left on the old agreement. The WRU has now served a two-year notice period on them and stated “the system will not return to the model of four evenly funded clubs”.

It’s an almost certainly purposely vague statement that doesn’t give any indication about what the future actually holds or when any stakeholders can expect further communication over plans or a final outcome to be reached. Final until the next change anyway.

It’s not a great look for the WRU or for Abi Tierney on an individual level. There will be multiple quotes and sound bites floating around from her regarding the unwavering commitment to four pro clubs, while the Union trying to strong arm anyone into signing contracts isn’t exactly conducive to a two-way collaboration on a “One Wales” strategy.

However there’s clearly a lot at play behind the scenes, most notably involving NatWest. The WRU desperately need to refinance their debts to push forward with their strategy but they can’t do that while the old PRA is in play because the flexible profit share element is too much of a risk for the bank.

They set deadlines for the Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets to sign the new PRA in order to reach that point where NatWest are happy to refinance, the Dragons did so, but the two West Wales clubs didn’t and, to a degree, the Union have called their bluff by now putting them on that two-year notice period.

This is then where Cardiff come into it. As we know the Blue & Blacks went into administration last month after Helford Capital failed to produce money they were contractually obliged to as our benefactors under the old PRA, and were immediately bought out of it by the WRU.

The Union then became our de-facto benefactor and would subsequently be putting more money into Cardiff via the new PRA than the other three clubs as they would be making payments due through the agreement as well as being liable to cover any losses. Ospreys and Scarlets had queries on that front they wanted answers to prior to signing.

It is totally understandable why questions would be asked of this arrangement. If the shoe were on the other foot then I would expect Cardiff’s management to also be seeking clarification, but taking that to the level where you risk the club’s future competitiveness and potentially their whole existence seems inadvisable.

There was certainly a situation brewing where the Blue & Blacks not only escaped administration without punishment, but almost benefitted from it with the extra WRU money. That shouldn’t be happening and the capital city club could have had no complaints around receiving a worse deal than the other three while Union-owned.

How that could have been overcome was difficult to see though as its highly unlikely the Union has the money to also pay extra to Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets, but it does represent the risk for Cardiff going forward into the next phase.

If the WRU plans to go to three teams then the Blue & Blacks remain an obvious choice even if it would be a bit bizarre to save the club only to then move to close it down.

As Union-owned they could very easily just state we will cease to exist, while if it went to a bidding process between the four pro clubs then not having a benefactor lined up would presumably be a major issue assuming that was a key aspect of the business plan criteria.

Should the WRU aim to proceed with four clubs but with a mixed payment model of 3+1 or 2+2 then there would also seemingly be a risk that as the Union-owned team Cardiff ends up at the lower end of those scales with the independent teams backed by their benefactors carrying more risk.

It is for this reason why, with the two-year notice period now in effect, the Blue & Blacks need to be getting back into private ownership sooner rather than later. For the good of the club’s future, for the good of Welsh rugby as a whole, and for the good of those of us who don’t want to see be run by the WRU for any longer than absolutely necessary.

Meanwhile for Tierney and the Union the priority now has to be improving the speed and clarity of decisions and their subsequent announcements.

There will be plenty who won’t want to read this, but the majority of recent decisions taken have probably been correct. However, the completely eroded trust in the WRU thanks to previous regimes on Westgate Street means they start from the furthest back of back feet, and major news leaking out via WalesOnline or the Daily Heil doesn’t help that.

It might be a two-year notice period, but it does no good to be operating under that cloud of uncertainty for so long. Decide on the clear way forward and communicate that transparently by the end of the summer.

No matter the outcome it won’t be popular, but at least it displays a conviction and can help get Welsh rugby on the long road back towards somewhere close to properly functioning.

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