Posted by As the United Rugby Championship enters the final four games of the 2025/26 season, Cardiff Rugby are closer than ever to a first spot in the play-offs since they were re-introduced to a previous iteration of the league in 2009/10.
The Blue & Blacks sit in 6th position currently, just two points clearly of 9th place Connacht but the same two points back from the Lions in 5th as the battle for the four away berths in the quarter-finals seems set to go down to the wire. Even Ospreys in 11th on 30 points are not entirely out of the race should they string some wins together in the next month.
It’s a strong position for Corniel Van Zyl’s men though, and begs the question of whether Cardiff need to make the top eight in order to have had a successful season. Is there still enough to take from the campaign as a whole should we fall short again, or is progression on the league table the only metric that really matters? And how does the next week tie into all that?
The answers likely have a different answer depending on where the respondent sits in relation to the Blue & Blacks bubble. Those on the edge or outside the bubble would probably say a year-on-year improvement requires the capital club to make the play-offs in order to be seen as improving. After missing out by a single point in 2024/25, to do so again would in its most simplistic form be a stagnation.
However, sport is rarely as binary as that, and this case is no exception.
Inside the bubble there are plenty of metrics by which this Cardiff team have improved; with four games to go we have matched last season’s win tally, the stats around the kicking game and defensively signal clear progression in those areas of on-field performance, and just generally I think the feel is we are a more well-rounded rugby team.
Ultimately the big picture is where we are now from that base level of the summer of 2023. There was the season of brave losses, then last season of turning some of those into good wins, and now this season becoming genuinely tough opposition and ensuring last year was not a one-off play-off push but confirmation of where we are now season-in, season-out.
That’s not to say things have been plain sailing this season. The attack has not fired as it has the last two years, but the context point there is that the Head Coach – who also ran the attack – departed on the eve of the campaign getting underway and the interim solutions have not functioned to the same level.
Having said all that though, the next two games are massive for Cardiff as they prepare for back-to-back Welsh derbies, travelling first to Scarlets this weekend before hosting Ospreys at the Arms Park a week on Friday, and they’re massive for a few reasons.
First and foremost they are massive for the chances of making the play-offs this season. The equation is pretty much “win both and qualify” as even without bonus points it would take the Blue & Blacks to 49 points whereby 48 points is likely to be enough to nail down a spot in the top half of the table.
On a wider point though they are massive to really understand the resilience and mentality of this team. There is no shame in losing heavily to the Bulls at Loftus Versfeld, or a much-changed side being distinctly second best against a full strength Exeter, but the festive derby performances against Scarlets and Ospreys still wrankle.
If Cardiff retain ambitions of returning to the top table of European rugby, then first we need to make sure we’re top of the Welsh rugby table, and winning derbies is the best statement to make in that regard. Similarly, being able to bounce back from disappointment and put things right is a key characteristic of the best teams around.
And on a more holistic level, these are the big games at the business end of the season that the Blue & Blacks want to be experiencing and, hopefully, winning.
Of course the eventual aim is for the big games in April and May to be genuinely winnable Champions Cup knockout fixtures and runs into the URC play-offs, but for now going into two Welsh derbies with a play-off spot on the line represents the closest to major knockout rugby that Cardiff are going to get.
In the end how the season is viewed may well come down to the individual supporter’s temperament, but there is no doubt that the next two weeks will be a decisive factor for many.
Win two games and secure a spot in the play-offs and the coverage will be overwhelmingly positive, win one game while putting in two good performances and it will be viewed largely as passable, but repeat what we saw around Christmas and it’ll be difficult to avoid a level of negativity.
The pressure is on, time to see who embraces it!
Cardiff Rugby Life 